Since mid-March, Zheng Mian's contracts have plunged one after another. The main CF2005 contract soldiers have gone straight to the 10,500 yuan / ton mark, a new low since June 1, 2009. In less than two weeks, Zheng Mian fell 2385 points, a drop of 19%. Although cotton traders and cotton companies continue to raise the basis, reducing the impact of ICE cotton and Zheng cotton fall on the spot, it still puts great pressure on cotton companies that have not hedged or have relatively low hedging.
From the cotton enterprise basis quote, on March 24, Henan, Shandong and other inland warehouses "Double 29" South Xinjiang hand-picked cotton offer 11300-11400 yuan / ton (basic difference quote, the same below), "Double 28" machine cotton The quoted price is 10700-10800 yuan / ton, which is higher than the quoted price of 300-400 yuan / ton in the Xinjiang Supervision Depot (the price of the 3128B cotton picking machine in the Xinjiang Depot is gradually approaching the CF2005 contract price).
Affected by the recent large-scale reduction of railway and road transportation costs, the spread of Xinjiang ’s endothelial cotton has narrowed. In addition, cotton textile companies have stepped up their purchase of warehouse receipts for 2018/19 and 2019/20. In addition to the spot price of Xinjiang cotton stocks in the mainland, the transaction has not improved much. According to statistics, as of March 23, Zheng cotton warehouse receipts + effective forecasts totaled 1.561 million tons, a decrease of nearly 150,000 tons from the high point in late February.
In response to Zheng cotton falling below the 10,000 yuan / ton mark, most cotton companies in Xinjiang have adopted the strategy of not quoting, selling, and hurrying to move the warehouse. First, the current spot price and the comprehensive cost of lint are upside down over 2500 yuan / ton (machine-picked cotton); The second reason is that the transportation cost of public railways has fallen sharply, and the cotton relocation stock has been reduced. The third is that the supervision and delivery warehouses in Xinjiang are full of cotton, and the sales pressure is outstanding. The fourth is to actively adopt mortgage financing and other methods to alleviate the pressure of repayment.
