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The difficulty of further contraction of the crude oil supply side has increased, new PX devices have been launched, and PTA inventory has continued to accumulate. Under the suppression of the above factors, PTA can be traded on the short side.

Since January, PTA has maintained a strong operating trend, with the 1905 contract rising from 5,560 yuan / ton to 6,700 yuan / ton. There are three main reasons for analyzing the rise: first, the price of crude oil has strengthened; second, PX has maintained high profits; third, PTA processing profits have increased. After the holiday, under the influence of Fu Haichuang's resumption of work, on the night of February 13, PTA broke away from the mode of resonance with crude oil and fell significantly. For the market outlook logic, the analysis is as follows:

Crude oil prices face adjustment risks

In January, the total output of OPEC was 30.806 million barrels / day, a decrease of 797,000 barrels / day from the previous month. The decrease in OPEC output is due on the one hand to the higher implementation rates of production reductions in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait. Saudi Arabia claims that it will further reduce production by 400,000 barrels per day to 9.8 million barrels per day. Venezuela's production decline.

For non-OPEC, as of February 15, US production increased to 12 million barrels per day, and crude oil inventories in the country were 454.512 million barrels, an increase of 3.67 million barrels from the previous week. In addition, in January, Russia's output fell by 42,000 barrels per day, about one-sixth of the 230,000 barrels per day reduction promised in the agreement.

OPEC + cut production, the problem of excess oil market has eased. According to the data, the current surplus is 200,000 barrels per day. The oversupply has turned into an unexpected drop in supply that is pinned on the supply side. However, recently, US production has increased, Iran ’s exports have been higher than expected, and India has imported a large amount of Venezuelan crude oil. These factors have increased the difficulty of further contraction at the supply side, and the crude oil market is under pressure to adjust.

PX processing profit will weaken for a long time

In July last year, the operation of new equipment in Saudi Arabia and Vietnam was unstable, PX production capacity was insufficient, and the price rose rapidly. The price difference with naphtha also widened, reaching as high as 630 US dollars / ton, and then maintained at around 550 US dollars / ton.

The global market for p-xylene production capacity is increasing, and it is expected to reach 69 million tons / year in 2022, while the demand is expected to be 51 million tons / year. There is excess capacity, especially in Northeast Asia. The problem of excess capacity is prominent. This year is a big year for China's PX production capacity. Jiangsu Hengli Petrochemical plans to put into operation two PX units. The first unit is planned to open the process at the end of March to try to achieve the start-up. The second unit is planned to be two months after the first unit is put into operation. Production. Zhejiang Petrochemical's 40-million-ton / year integrated refining and chemical integration project Phase I atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit has begun its first oil-feeding operation. At the end of this month, the first phase project of Zhoushan Green Petrochemical Base is completed and put into operation. By then, the refining capacity of 20 million tons / year will be realized. New PX devices are being launched one after another, and the spread between PX and naphtha will weaken for a long time.

Short-term PTA supply exceeds demand

After the festival, PTA continued to accumulate stocks, and the current inventory is 1.1 million tons. The operating rate of the PTA plant has been increased to 80%, while the operating rate of the polyester plant has been 76%, and PTA has accumulated more than 300,000 tons per month.

On the supply side, Fuzhou Chemical Industry increased its operating rate on February 13; Yisheng Ningbo reduced its load to 50% due to a failure on February 15 and is now back to normal production; Yangzi Petrochemical's maintenance equipment is expected to restart this week; Hengli Petrochemical Devices originally scheduled for overhaul in January were postponed to overhaul in early March. On the whole, there are few PTA overhaul devices and they are in the supply release stage.

In terms of demand, at present, there are 8 sets of equipment heating up and restarting, involving a capacity of 2.43 million tons / year, and the operating rate of the polyester industry has increased to 76%. However, recently, the average production and sales of mainstream polyester manufacturers is only 10% -30%, and some of the better manufacturers are only 40% -60%. Weaving demand has not officially started, resulting in the accumulation of polyester filament inventory. Statistics show that polyester filament inventory is 18-25 days.

Combining the above analysis, the short-to-long conversion of the PTA market. Operationally, Fengcang light warehouse intercepted short orders, but did not over chase short. After the establishment of the crude oil adjustment or the formation of PX profit decline, gradually increase the PTA short order volume.